Friday, November 23, 2007

$100 Oil continues to elude us


The price of oil continues to act like the plot in an over-wrought straight-to-DVD suspense movie. You know, where the protagonist wanders through the empty house, and the camera lingers on the closet door, on her face, on the telephone on the nightstand, on the shuttered window, on her face, and back to the closet door, all while the musical score gets eerier and eerier until the suspense has been building for so long you want to shout "JUST JUMP OUT AT HER ALREADY!"

Yahoo!: Oil prices slip further from record heights


New York's main contract, light sweet crude for January delivery, sank 95 cents to 96.34 dollars per barrel. The contract had hit an historic 99.29 dollars on Wednesday.
Elsewhere Friday, London's Brent North Sea crude for January delivery fell 48 cents to 94.02 dollars per barrel, after striking an all-time peak of 96.53 dollars on Wednesday.
This week, crude futures failed to top 100 dollars, despite US government data which showed that American energy stockpiles fell more heavily than expected last week.


Nothing better exemplifies both the Random Walk and the principle that a watched pot never boils than the price of oil. I don't doubt that it will happen, but it won't do it when any of the usual suspects say that it will.

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2 comments:

Mark Goldes said...

Let’s have a "Triple Play": Reduce Oil Prices and Dependence on Fossil Fuels, while Meeting the Growing Demand for Electric Power

The Cost of Oil
Oil prices may soon reach $100/barrel. In two years there will be one billion automotive vehicles worldwide. If current trends continue, by 2030 world oil supply, projected to be 70 Million barrels per day, will fall far short of the estimated daily demand. The projected shortfall of 40 Million barrels of oil per day will drive fuel costs far beyond tenable levels. The world will see more wars, such as the conflict in Iraq, unless a path is opened that can dramatically reduce demand for oil.

Fossil Fuels and Global Warming
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, concluded that drastic shifts are happening much more rapidly than earlier predicted. Rajendra Pachauri, a scientist and economist who heads the IPCC has stated: “What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”

Greenland loses more ice each year than all the ice in the Alps said Konrad Steffen, a Greenland expert and advisor on abrupt climate change. "It is scary," said Steffen. Not only in Greenland, but in Antarctica and elsewhere there is massive melting of ice. “In 8 years nearly all Peru's glaciers will be gone due to global warming and its 27 million people will nearly all lack fresh water, with the likely result being: 'chaos, conflict and mass migration'. Each 1 degree Celsius global temperature rise deprives between 400 million and 1.7 billion people of sufficient water. “A total of 46 nations and 2.7 billion people are now at high risk of being overwhelmed by armed conflict and war because of climate change. A further 56 countries face political destabilization, affecting another 1.2 billion individuals.” (Observer UK 11-4-07). More than 180 nations have coastal areas in peril. Two-thirds have over 5 million people under threat of serious flooding. Included are cities such as New York, London, Miami, Shanghai and Tokyo.

The World’s Huge Appetite for Energy
Energy consumption is at the core of human existence. It virtually controls what we eat, how we live, where we go, how we are entertained, our health, knowledge, defense and exploration. The world's demand for energy is surging.

The International Energy Outlook 2006, by the U.S. Department of Energy, forecasts electricity use will grow by an average of 2 percent per year worldwide and almost twice as rapidly in the developing world. Robust economic growth in many developing nations is expected to boost demand for electricity for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Global energy consumption is projected to increase by 71% from 2003 to 2030. We need to sharply accelerate development of radically new, cost-effective, sustainable alternatives.

The Triple Play
A revolutionary new technology, GENIE™ (Generating Electricity by Nondestructive Interference of Energy) is being developed at Magnetic Power, Inc. (MPI).

MPI has dedicated more than 20 years of research and development into exploring breakthrough technologies. To reverse the trends discussed above, MPI envisions a technological revolution, developed commercially, that has limited impact on available planetary resources. GENIE is projected to be easy to manufacture and use, as well as inexpensive, thus capable of rapidly achieving global impact.

Based upon proprietary breakthrough discoveries in MPI's labs, GENIE generators are being designed to operate continuously, without fuel, extracting electricity by converting an energy source that exists everywhere in the universe. This process creates no pollution. The cost of electricity is estimated to be significantly less than any competing form of power generation, today or in the foreseeable future.

GENIE generators with no moving parts can be made in many of the world's electronics factories. Household units will produce power 24/7. Larger units will replace automobile engines. GENIE will eliminate any need for fuel to run a vehicle. It can also allow future cars to become income producing power plants when parked.

GENIE is a magnetic device. Nobel physicist Werner Heisenberg once stated: "We could utilize magnetism as an energy source". Hans Coler demonstrated a 6 Kilowatt, solid-state, magnetic "space-energy receiver" in Germany during 1937. It was destroyed by an Allied bomb during WWII. The invention was confirmed by British Intelligence after the War. However, at the time, there was no comprehension as to the source of the energy. Coler wrote: "These fundamental researches…have made the first real and large breach in the citadel of present scientific belief."

Advanced GENIE prototypes are currently being constructed by MPI. Lee Felsenstein, EE, evaluated an early proof-of-concept prototype. He felt it to be analogous to the first examples of the transistor, which eventually led to a Nobel Prize and the creation of Silicon Valley (and similar high-tech complexes throughout the world).

Within a year, a compact, 1,000 watt, self-sustaining, GENIE generator is a goal. A plug-in hybrid car, with a pair of these GENIE prototypes replacing any need to plug-in, will herald the beginning of an end to the need for fuel. Within two or three years, the first example of a larger GENIE generator, the size of a car’s fuel tank, might readily demonstrate the potential to replace any need for a fuel-burning engine.

The urgent need is for an emergency changeover, in less than a decade, from burning fuel, to widespread use of new sources of energy that eliminate the need for fossil fuels. The Triple Play made possible by GENIE makes that a practical goal. We applaud all efforts to replace oil and reduce greenhouse gases. However, nothing short of revolutionary new technology can act fast enough to save millions of lives.

Scientists may express skepticism, since the energy source is not yet widely understood. Acceptance will come when one sits on a desk in front of them and produces electricity. MPI is developing room heaters, Demonstration Devices and toys. Young people with open minds might teach their elders how they function. This Triple Play can and will accelerate, as rapidly as the required funding will allow.

www.magneticpowerinc.com

Unknown said...

Just call me cynical but all I can find on this is MPI's own website and the articles it has generated. And their website and articles are only 2007 current. Did anyone hear the "pop" when MPI showed up? There is no dialogue in the media on this matter - apart from the basic theoretical physics treatises on the nature of zero point energy. Google that and see what you get. By the way, the last time I heard the term "zero point energy" in the media was as a dialogue line in the movie "The Incredibles".

Like "cold fusion" I'll believe it when I see it. Basic physics folks - energy cannot be created from nothing, only transferred from potential to kinetic states and vice versa - and don't forget the losses in those conversions caused by friction, thermodynamic transference and resistance - just to name the most obvious. So far there's no free lunch in the universe. If there was wouldn't there be a war to be the first in line?

'Nuff said

BTW I'll be covering the theological reasons for their being no free energy lunch in my blog.