LCD will allegedly Snag 75 Per Cent of the Flat-Panel Market by 2011

I have a problem with long term forecasts, as many of you well know.

Marketnews: LCD to Snag 75 Per Cent of the Flat-Panel Market by 2011

Market research firm In-Stat has boldly predicted that LCD
will succeed in grabbing nearly three-quarters of the worldwide digital TV
market for 2011; while plasma will decline to less than 15 per cent. The results
are based on seven end-user surveys that In-Stat conducted in three regions
across the world: North America (in the U.S. and Canada); Asia (Japan and
Korea); and Europe (UK, France, and Germany).

That sounds like a wonderfully expert-sounding prognostication, but I'm not sold.

Maybe it's because I'm dug deep into Taleb's The Black Swan, but I'm skeptical about even experts being able to forecast accurately based on the data they presently have.

For starters, there's a handful of nascent video display technologies, such as Organic LED, any one of which may blow up into the Next Big Thing. There is zero guarantee that either LCD or Plasma won't be yesterday's news in four years time.

I'm just throwing that out there for you to think about...

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